The Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Board meets on 2 and 3 November, and the decision lands at 2:30 pm on Tuesday 3 November: Melbourne Cup Day, half an hour before the race is run. A fortnight ago almost nobody expected a move. After a speech by Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser on 21 October, markets put the chance of a fifth rise this year at about even.
The deciding number is due before the Board meets: the September quarter inflation figures, out on Wednesday 28 October. Here is where things stand as at Saturday 24 October, what each outcome would cost a Newcastle or Lake Macquarie mortgage, and what is worth doing before Tuesday week.
Where the Cash Rate Stands
The cash rate target is 4.60 per cent. The Board has raised it four times in 2026, in February, March, May and September, a full percentage point in total, and it is the highest it has been since 2011. The major banks passed the September rise on in full, with variable rates rising from 9 October.
For a sense of what borrowers are actually paying: the Reserve Bank’s figure for the average variable rate on existing owner-occupier loans was 6.2 per cent in August, before the September rise. Add that rise and a typical borrower is now on about 6.45 per cent. That is the rate we use in the figures below.
When it lifted rates in September, the Board left the door open. It said it “will continue to do what it considers necessary to bring inflation sustainably back to target, including increasing the cash rate target further if needed.”
Why November Is Suddenly Live
Until last week, the market had largely written off a November move. At a conference on 21 October, the moderator noted that pricing showed only about 8 basis points of a rise for November. Then Andrew Hauser answered the question.
“The inflation outlook looks materially worse than we projected in the August report,” he said. Oil prices, he added, are “about a third higher than we assumed in the August projection.” On the September quarter figures due on 28 October, he said that “absent a very, very big downside surprise” the quarterly number would be bigger than the Bank had assumed, and that a trimmed mean result of around 1.0 per cent was “definitely north of what we were assuming, in August.”
By that afternoon, market pricing put the chance of a November rise at 51 per cent, according to Bloomberg data reported by the ABC. Economists split along the same line:
| Bank | November call | Latest view we found |
|---|---|---|
| Westpac | Rise to 4.85% | “On balance, we think that a follow-up rate hike is likely at the RBA’s November meeting” (6 October) |
| ANZ | Rise to 4.85% | A November rise more likely than not (reported 1 and 6 October) |
| CBA | Hold | Expects the rate to stay on hold, but says “the clear risk is another rate hike” and November is “very much live” (13 October) |
| NAB | Hold | Still forecasting a peak of 4.60% (reported 1 October) |
None of the big four had published a fresh call after Hauser’s speech at the time of writing. Expect them to update after Wednesday’s figures.
The Number to Watch on Wednesday
The Bureau of Statistics releases the September monthly CPI on 28 October, and with it the full September quarter figures. The one the Reserve Bank watches most closely is the quarterly trimmed mean, which strips out the biggest price swings in either direction.
Most forecasters expect around 0.9 to 1.0 per cent for the quarter, and CBA has pencilled in 1.0 per cent. The monthly figures so far point the same way. In August, headline inflation was 4.0 per cent over the year, up from 3.5 per cent in July, and the annual trimmed mean was 3.6 per cent for the third month running. Housing was the largest contributor, and automotive fuel prices rose 14.8 per cent as world oil prices climbed and the last of the federal fuel excise relief unwound.
In its August forecasts, the Reserve Bank expected the annual trimmed mean to ease to 3.3 per cent by December. As a rough guide:
- A trimmed mean of 1.0 per cent or more would confirm what Hauser flagged and make a rise on 3 November hard for the Board to avoid.
- A result closer to 0.8 per cent would give the Board room to hold and wait for more data, though probably with a warning attached.
The Board also releases new forecasts with its decision on 3 November, so even a hold will come with an updated view of how long rates stay high.
The Case for Holding
The Board is not short of reasons to wait. Several of them are showing up in Newcastle.
- Jobs are softening. Unemployment rose to 4.7 per cent in September, and 39,000 fewer people were employed than in August.
- Households are under pressure. The minutes of the September meeting put scheduled mortgage payments at around 10 per cent of household disposable income, back around their 2024 peak.
- Confidence has collapsed. The Westpac–Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment index fell to 80.4 in October. Among people surveyed after the September decision it was just 67.2, a level Westpac says has only been recorded in the depths of the early 1990s recession. The weekly ANZ–Roy Morgan measure was 67.7 in mid-October, and NAB’s business confidence index fell to −13.
- Housing is correcting. The Board’s own staff now expect “the cumulative fall in housing prices is likely to be greater than had been assumed in the August forecasts.”
Hauser acknowledged all of it: “monetary policy is working. Labour market is easing. Consumption growth is quite tepid. But there are still pockets of growth and the inflation outlook has deteriorated.” The question for 3 November is which of those two sentences the Board weighs more.
What Is Happening to Newcastle Property
Locally, the correction is now five months old. According to Cotality’s September figures, as reported by the Newcastle Herald on 10 October:
| Region | Median value | Change in September |
|---|---|---|
| Newcastle & Lake Macquarie houses | $1,049,932 | −0.7% |
| Newcastle & Lake Macquarie units | $796,897 | −0.6% |
| Newcastle & Lake Macquarie, all | $1,008,785 | −0.7% |
| Hunter Valley, all | $818,029 | −0.6% |
That was the fifth fall in a row, and it leaves dwelling values 4.1 per cent below April’s peak. Over the September quarter, Newcastle and Lake Macquarie fell 3.1 per cent, faster than the 2.2 per cent fall across the rest of regional NSW. Cotality’s Annabelle Mezieres noted that “it would only take a fall of $8785 for the median to fall below the million-dollar mark.”
Buyers have more to choose from and more time to choose. There were 1,894 homes listed, up from 1,535 a year earlier, and the typical home is taking 38 days to sell, against 23. In August, the last month with published sales counts, 361 homes sold across Newcastle and Lake Macquarie, down from 880 at the October 2025 peak.
Nationally, values fell 1.1 per cent in September, the sixth straight monthly fall, and Sydney fell 1.4 per cent. Cotality’s October figures are due around 2 November, the day before the decision.
The one surprise is buyer sentiment. Westpac’s “time to buy a dwelling” index rose 3.4 per cent to 88.4 in October, despite the rate rise, and New South Wales was among the least downbeat states at 93. It is still far below its long-run average of 119.1, but some buyers are starting to see falling prices as an opportunity. Expectations are split: in the same survey, 46 per cent expected prices to rise over the next year and just over 31 per cent expected further falls.
We covered which local suburbs have fallen furthest in four months of falling values, suburb by suburb.
What a Fifth Rise Would Cost
If the Board lifts by another 0.25 percentage points and lenders pass it on in full, a typical variable rate goes from about 6.45 to 6.70 per cent. On a 30-year principal and interest loan:
| Loan | At 6.45% | At 6.70% | Extra a month | Extra a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $500,000 | $3,144 | $3,226 | $82 | $990 |
| $650,000 | $4,087 | $4,194 | $107 | $1,287 |
| $800,000 | $5,030 | $5,162 | $132 | $1,583 |
| $840,000* | $5,282 | $5,420 | $139 | $1,663 |
*$840,000 is 80 per cent of the Newcastle and Lake Macquarie median house value. Illustrative only. Your own rate, balance and remaining term will differ. Run your figures in the loan repayment calculator.
For buyers, the bigger effect is on borrowing power. Lenders test your application at your rate plus at least 3 percentage points, so each rise lifts the test rate too. As a rough guide, another 0.25 point rise trims borrowing capacity by about 2 per cent: someone approved for $700,000 today would be closer to $685,000. The borrowing power calculator applies the same buffer.
A Cup Day Decision
This is not the first time the Reserve Bank and the Melbourne Cup have shared a Tuesday. Over the years the Board has delivered rises on Cup Day, most recently in 2022 and 2023, and cuts as well, as in 2008 and 2011. A November decision arriving half an hour before the Cup has become something of an Australian tradition.
Unlike the Cup, this one has no clear favourite. With market pricing at about even, it is effectively a two-horse field: a hold at 4.60 per cent, or a rise to 4.85 per cent. Nobody can pick it with confidence, so the useful work happens before the decision rather than after: knowing your rate, your buffer and your borrowing power under both outcomes.
A Quick Word on Cup Day Bets and Home Loans
If you are planning to buy or refinance soon, it helps to know that lenders read your bank statements, usually the last three to six months. An office sweep or a one-off bet on the Cup is not going to trouble anyone. Regular transactions to betting apps are different: many lenders ask about them, some treat them as an ongoing expense when they assess what you can afford, and frequent gambling activity can lead to an application being declined.
If gambling has stopped being fun for you or someone close to you, free and confidential support is available 24/7 from Gambling Help Online or on 1800 858 858.
What to Do Before 3 November
1. Find out what rate you are actually on. If you are well above the rates lenders are offering new customers, a repricing request to your current lender costs nothing and does not commit you to anything. If they will not move, refinancing may still be worth it, even with values falling, as long as you check your loan-to-value ratio first. Our refinancing guide covers what to check, and can you still refinance after four rate rises deals with the stricter test new lenders apply.
2. If you are buying, have your pre-approval rechecked. A pre-approval is conditional. If the Board moves on Tuesday week and your lender reassesses at the higher rate, your limit could shrink after you have made an offer.
3. Think carefully before rushing to fix. Fixed rates have already moved: Canstar counted 289 fixed rate increases in the week after the September rise, and ANZ has since raised its fixed rates for the second time in just over three weeks. Expected rises are generally priced into fixed rates before they happen, so fixing in the days before a meeting rarely beats the market. It can still be the right call if certainty matters more to you than the lowest rate. Our guide to fixed or variable in 2026 sets out the trade-offs.
4. Build a buffer while you can. If a rise would stretch your budget, start putting the difference into your offset or redraw now. If rates do not move, you are simply ahead on your loan.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the next RBA interest rate decision?
The Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Board meets on 2 and 3 November 2026 and announces its decision at 2:30 pm AEDT on Tuesday 3 November, which is Melbourne Cup Day. It publishes updated economic forecasts in its Statement on Monetary Policy at the same time.
Is the RBA decision on Melbourne Cup Day?
Yes. The November 2026 decision is announced at 2:30 pm AEDT on Tuesday 3 November, Melbourne Cup Day, about half an hour before the Cup is run. The Board has moved rates on Cup Day before, most recently with rises in 2022 and 2023.
Will the RBA raise interest rates in November 2026?
Nobody knows yet, and the odds are close to even. After Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said the inflation outlook looked “materially worse” on 21 October, market pricing put the chance of a rise at about 51 per cent. Westpac and ANZ expect a rise to 4.85 per cent, while CBA and NAB expect a hold. The September quarter inflation figures on 28 October are likely to decide it.
How much would another rate rise add to my mortgage repayments?
A 0.25 percentage point rise passed on in full adds about $107 a month to a $650,000 loan and about $132 a month to an $800,000 loan, assuming a 30-year principal and interest loan moving from about 6.45 to 6.70 per cent. On an $840,000 loan, which is 80 per cent of the Newcastle and Lake Macquarie median house value, it is about $139 a month.
Should I fix my home loan before the November RBA meeting?
Fixing just before a meeting rarely beats the market, because lenders price expected rises into fixed rates in advance. More than 280 fixed rates were lifted in the week after the September rise. Fixing can still make sense if you value certainty over the lowest possible rate, but compare the fixed rate against your variable rate after a possible rise, and check break costs before you commit.
Are Newcastle house prices still falling?
Yes. Cotality’s September figures, reported by the Newcastle Herald, showed the median house value across Newcastle and Lake Macquarie down 0.7 per cent in the month to $1,049,932, the fifth monthly fall in a row. Dwelling values are 4.1 per cent below the April peak, and homes are taking 38 days to sell.
Talk It Through Before Tuesday Week
Whether the Board moves or not, the borrowers who come through periods like this best are the ones who look at their position early. A short conversation often turns up a sharper rate from your current lender, a better loan structure, or simply confirmation that you are in better shape than you thought. David works with borrowers across Newcastle, Lake Macquarie, the Hunter Valley and Port Stephens, and compares more than 40 lenders.
Want to talk through what the November decision could mean for you? Call David on 0417 676 191 or get in touch via our contact form.
This article is general information only and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Figures are illustrative and current as at 24 October 2026. Market pricing and economists’ forecasts change quickly, particularly around data releases. Interest rates, lender policies and government scheme rules change. Please seek advice specific to your circumstances before acting.
Sources
- Reserve Bank of Australia, Statement by the Monetary Policy Board: Monetary Policy Decision, 29 September 2026.
- Reserve Bank of Australia, Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting of the Board, 29 September 2026.
- Reserve Bank of Australia, Andrew Hauser, Deputy Governor, remarks, 21 October 2026.
- Reserve Bank of Australia, Cash Rate Target, and Lending rates (F6), August 2026.
- Reserve Bank of Australia, Statement on Monetary Policy, August 2026: Outlook.
- ABC News, market pricing based on Bloomberg data, 21 October 2026.
- Westpac IQ, Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment, October 2026, 6 October 2026.
- Commonwealth Bank, RBA minutes show why the Board decided it could not wait on inflation, 13 October 2026.
- ANZ and NAB forecasts as reported by The Adviser (1 October 2026) and Aussie (6 October 2026).
- Australian Bureau of Statistics, CPI rose 4.0% in the year to August 2026, 30 September 2026.
- Australian Bureau of Statistics, Unemployment rate 4.7% in September, 15 October 2026.
- Roy Morgan, ANZ–Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence, 20 October 2026.
- NAB, Monthly Business Survey, September 2026, 13 October 2026.
- Broker News, big four pass on RBA hike in full, 30 September 2026, and lenders lift 289 fixed rates, Canstar finds, 7 October 2026.
- Mortgage Professional Australia, ANZ raises fixed rates for second time in just over three weeks, 9 October 2026.
- Cotality, Home Value Index, October 2026 (data to 30 September 2026), national and Sydney figures.
- Newcastle Herald, Five months of falls put Newcastle’s million-dollar status at risk, 10 October 2026 (Cotality data for September), and Newcastle and Lake Macquarie home values dip for a fourth month, 1 September 2026 (August sales counts).
- Repayment and borrowing power figures are calculated on a 30-year principal and interest loan at the rates stated, with the 3 percentage point serviceability buffer in APRA’s Prudential Practice Guide APG 223.
Ready to move forward?
Have questions about anything in this article? David from Rebus Finance can help with a free, no-obligation chat.